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Smoking and Tobacco

Basis of the 400000 deaths per year?

04/25/2000

Question:

The CDC has told us that 400000 deaths per year come about from tobacco related illnesses. Where did the basis of this number come from? I have researched this and can`t come up with any solid research that validates this number. This number of 400000 is tossed about like it is scientific fact but it is hard for me to located the scientific information of the estimate. Any help on finding this reasearch would be appreciated

Answer:

Since it is not possible to know the smoking status and diseases of each of the millions of persons living in the United States, there are scientists who study groups of people to derive estimates of smoking attributable deaths. These scientists are called epidemiologists. The 1989 Surgeon General`s Report, Reducing the Health Consequences of Smoking: 25 years of Progress includes a chapter on the changes in smoking-attributable mortality (deaths) in a 20 year period. This may provide some of the background that you are seeking. Most libraries will have the Surgeon General Reports in their reference section.

This document provides information about the concept of attributable risk as well as the mathematics and calculations. In essence, one examines the new cases of a particular disease, such as lung cancer, in a given time period for 2 different groups - one of smokers and the other of nonsmokers. Calculations can then be done to estimate the increased risk of a smoker having lung cancer, for example, compared to a nonsmoker. The authors of the above mentioned reference discuss the limitations of the analyses, but it does provide us a very important estimate of some of the consequences of smoking. They note some differences among men and women. For example, about 42% of heart disease deaths in men (35-64 years of age) were associated with smoking while 26% of these deaths in women were associated with smoking. Some of the higher percentages are lung cancer in men (86% is associated with smoking) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease or emphysema (84% in men and 67% in women).

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Response by:

The Ohio State University Karen L Ahijevych, PhD, RN, FAAN
Professor and Associate Dean for Academic Affairs
College of Nursing
The Ohio State University
Karen L Ahijevych, PhD, RN, FAAN